Profit-Taking Timing for Long-Term Investors: Relative Evaluation Over Absolute Evaluation
A subscriber asked about how to take profits on a stock currently in the green. Unlike short-term trading, long-term investing is difficult because a good stock can double, triple, or even increase tenfold. To decide the right time to take profits, you must use *relative evaluation*, not absolute evaluation. In other words, if the stock you’re holding has already produced a large return and seems to have limited future upside, then even if the price is not falling, you should compare it with another stock (Stock B) that has higher potential and boldly rotate your capital. This is a strategy only possible through relative evaluation—not absolute evaluation.
Difference Between Fear & Greed Index and Market Score
Another subscriber asked why the Fear & Greed Index fell into “Extreme Fear” even though the S&P 500 chart did not show a major drop. The reason is that the Fear & Greed Index combines various indicators that reflect overall market sentiment—not just price movement. For example, increases in put option ratios, rising VIX, preference for bonds (narrowing stock-bond yield gap), and widening spreads between investment-grade and junk bonds during economic weakness all contribute to market anxiety. Thus, the Fear & Greed Index can be volatile.
In contrast, the Choicestack Market Score analyzes the proportion of stocks generating buy signals versus sell signals. Even though the S&P 500 is only about 5% below its all-time high, many stocks still have strong momentum, so the Market Score appears overheated. In short, Market Score reflects market momentum, while the Fear & Greed Index reflects investor psychology.
U.S. Market Review of the Week: Mixed Signals with Positive Signs
Last week’s S&P 500 map showed a mix of green and red, but the rise in mega-cap stocks created an optical illusion. In reality, more stocks declined, indicating narrowing market breadth. However, there were few extreme gainers or losers. Healthcare outperformed, while Tesla, Oracle, Intel, Dell, and AppLovin declined.
This mixed pattern suggests a positive sign that, after the past 2–3 weeks of declines, the market may be shifting into a tug-of-war phase, possibly preparing for an upward reversal. Only the Dow Jones and S&P 500 closed slightly higher, while most other indices and sectors finished in the red. Market breadth fell to 43.3, showing that only a limited number of stocks maintain strong trends, and an improvement in breadth is needed for a solid S&P rebound.
Performance of Topic Stocks & Rebound Potential of AI Beneficiaries
Among the topic stocks, only AMD (+5.68%) and Nvidia (+1%+) recorded gains last week. This indicates overall weakness among AI beneficiary stocks. TSMC, Google, Meta, and other AI-related stocks showed slight declines, while Bitcoin- and Ethereum-related stocks dropped sharply.
Despite two weeks of corrections, AI beneficiary stocks showed a broad rally last Friday and successfully bounced from their 50-day moving average—a technically positive signal.
Warren Buffett and Smart Money’s Large Google Purchases
Over the weekend, it was announced that Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway made a large new purchase of Google shares. The 13F filing revealed that Google is now Berkshire’s 10th-largest holding, with approximately $4.34 billion invested. At the same time, they partially sold Apple and Bank of America shares.
Multiple smart-money institutions also purchased large amounts of Google stock. Whale Rock Capital Management, 3G Capital, and Philippe Laffont all increased their Google positions this quarter. Many institutions appear to be heavily accumulating Google this quarter.
Lessons from My Google Investment: Admit Mistakes and Reverse Them
Most investors focus on predicting the future, but skilled investors review the past, correct mistakes, and avoid repeating them. I personally made the mistake of selling all my Google shares at $158.44 on May 12, 2025, when its momentum was at its worst. But ten days later, on May 22, Google’s I/O conference made it clear that Google was leading the AI revolution, so I re-bought at $170.
Google has since reached $276.41, and over the weekend temporarily surged above $287 on the news. A rise of more than 70% from my re-entry shows how acknowledging mistakes and reversing decisions can make a major difference in long-term investing.
This Week’s Key Events: Nvidia Earnings & Government Reports
This week, overshadowed by the Buffett-Google news, the Nvidia earnings report (Wednesday, Nov 19) will heavily influence U.S. market direction. Major government reports, including the September employment report, will also be released. Details will be covered through the All-in-One membership and YouTube broadcasts.
Nvidia Earnings Deep Dive: Growth Drivers and Risks
The deep-dive analysis shows that hyperscaler data-center investments (about $368 billion over the past year) are not temporary but may become ongoing operational expenses in the AI era. In addition, the short lifespan of data-center GPUs suggests replacement demand is accelerating.
Risks include: (1) reduced reliance on Nvidia as major customers develop their own AI chips, and (2) high valuation (over 88× revenue), meaning any earnings disappointment could cause large volatility. Analysts still maintain a strong buy rating with a $351 target price, and note that mentions of “maintenance capex” or “replacement cycle” in the conference call will be key to watch.
