S&P 500 Status and Technical Risks: Key Watchpoints After Reclaiming 6,700
The S&P 500 recently confirmed strong support around the 10-day moving average, rebounded, and reclaimed the 6,700 level before recovering toward the 20-day moving average. This recovery reflects the combined influence of several macro factors. First, the probability of a December rate hike has been reassessed by the market, jumping from about 30% to 80%, which has been a major catalyst. Additionally, positive evaluations of Google (Alphabet)’s financial outlook and the expectation that the Russia–Ukraine war may end—potentially easing future inflation pressures—have improved investor sentiment.
However, it is still uncertain whether the current rebound is driven by short-term momentum or signals a shift into a stronger uptrend. The key inflection point is whether the index can sustain a breakout above 6,750. If it fails to surpass this level and reverses downward, a possible completion of a head-and-shoulders pattern may be suspected from a technical perspective, raising the possibility of further decline toward the 6,200 area. Therefore, checking the index trend before approaching individual stocks is essential.
Tesla: Catalysts and Technical Watchpoints
Tesla recently showed the strongest rise among the M7, drawing significant attention. Key bullish catalysts include progress in regulatory and operational aspects, such as the RoboTaxi verification test and approval for public-road operation in Arizona. These developments go beyond simple vehicle-sales momentum and expand expectations for Tesla’s robotics and AI business, fueling a market premium. Some securities firms (Stifel, Mizuho, etc.) have raised their target prices, with Stifel presenting a target of $508.
Technically, Tesla formed the lower boundary of its uptrend from the mid-November pivot at 422 and repeatedly held around Elon Musk’s average cost basis of about 390, before climbing above the 10-day moving average for the first time. This can be interpreted as a short-term rebound signal, but a true transition into a bullish wave requires confirming several points. The key is whether the stock can reclaim the 20-day moving average and break above the POC (high-volume node) around 433. If Tesla breaks above 433 with sufficient volume, the probability of new all-time highs increases, opening the path toward the upper boundary of the Kyoshi-shift channel around 520 (roughly 20% upside for the main stock).
On the other hand, if Tesla fails to break above 433 in this rally or falls back below the 10-day moving average, the likelihood of exiting the upward channel increases. In particular, losing Musk’s cost basis around 392 may trigger structural stop-loss selling, making risk management crucial. From a technical standpoint, preparing breakout/ breakdown trading strategies based on the upper support (around 433) and lower support (around 390) is reasonable.
Short-Term Trading Plan and Risk Management
It is reasonable to consider that Tesla has entered a short-term decision phase. Options positioning is tightly distributed without pointing to a clear direction, leaving both upside and downside open. Therefore, short-term traders should consider the following principles. First, if Tesla breaks above 433, build a trend-following position after confirming volume. Second, if it breaks below 390, set strict stop-loss rules and avoid excessive leverage. Third, reduce position size during high-volatility periods immediately after breaking previous highs to manage risk.
From an investor’s perspective, it is crucial to confirm the S&P 500’s trend (whether it can sustain the breakout above 6,750) before entering positions. If the index loses direction and a strong pullback occurs, the probability of failed breakouts in individual stocks increases, so aggressive chase-buying should be avoided.
Practical Checklist
1. Check whether the index (S&P 500) sustains the breakout above 6,750 — if it fails, prepare defensive strategies and stop-loss plans.
2. Confirm Tesla’s volume around the POC 433 — strong volume supports trend confirmation; weak volume requires caution.
3. Monitor whether Musk’s cost basis (≈392) is lost — losing this level increases downside risk.
4. Monitor volatility in options/futures positioning — prepare for sudden moves triggered by major expirations or positioning imbalances.
5. Reassess positions immediately when news risks arise (RoboTaxi regulations, AI-related filings, geopolitical issues).
Conclusion: Flexible Scenario Planning Needed Until Clear Confirmation
The current market has multiple simultaneous positive catalysts, but a confirmed major trend has not yet formed. If the S&P 500 clearly breaks and holds above 6,750, a stronger bullish scenario becomes possible. However, failure could open the way for a bearish reversal due to a head-and-shoulders formation. Tesla also has clear boundaries at 433/390, requiring trading rules based on breakout/failure and strict risk management.
