U.S. Stock Market and Cryptocurrency Trend Report — Monday (Recent Session) Closing Summary
After last week’s strong rally, the New York stock market shifted into a consolidation phase on Monday, with major indices closing lower. The Dow fell about 1%, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 recorded relatively small declines (around 0.4%–0.5%). The Russell 2000 dropped about 1%, indicating weakness in small and mid-cap stocks. Mega-cap and AI semiconductor-related stocks were mixed depending on the sector. Broadcom showed strength on target price upgrade news, while Google softened slightly. NVIDIA, AMD, and Micron Technology, along with major semiconductor names, rose more than 1%. Apple also climbed over 1%.
Impact of Online Spending and Cyclical Sectors
Online spending during Black Friday and Cyber Monday increased by double digits (around 10%+) year-over-year. The market interpreted this not as a mere discount effect but as an expansion in total spending, which provides a favorable environment for retail and consumer-related stocks. Meanwhile, utilities, healthcare, and industrial sectors showed weakness, and the overall market movement can be summarized as a “breather” phase.
Sharp Decline in Crypto Market and Financial/Liquidity Uncertainty
The sharp drop in the cryptocurrency market also acted as a source of concern for the stock market. Bitcoin fell roughly $10,000 in a few days, showing significant volatility. A major trigger was concerns related to MicroStrategy. Comments from the company’s CEO (suggesting the possibility of selling Bitcoin to pay dividends) were taken sensitively, though worries eased somewhat afterward as the company purchased additional Bitcoin. Still, liquidity uncertainty remains.
Overnight, U.S. Treasury yields climbed back to around 4.1%, and comments from the Bank of Japan reignited concerns over yen carry trade unwinding. Yen carry unwinding refers to the movement of ultra-low-rate Japanese funds being withdrawn and moving from dollar assets back into Japanese assets. This can heavily impact global markets, especially leveraged positions and the crypto market. Japan’s interest rates have surged to their highest levels since 2008, amplifying risk. These combined factors serve as warning signals to leveraged investors and increase the possibility of expanded volatility.
Economic Data and Rate-Cut Expectations
The November ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 48.2, below the expected 49. Production increased slightly, but declining new orders and weak employment indicators contributed to an overall weak reading. The market interpreted this as “bad news is good news,” boosting expectations for rate cuts. Currently, the probability of a December rate cut is priced in at a high level (generally mid-to-high 80% range). However, Bank of America warned that if three rate cuts are implemented by year-end, the capacity for rate cuts next year may be reduced.
Chair Powell’s speech is scheduled during the Fed’s blackout period, so direct monetary policy signals are likely to be limited. Still, a rate cut at the December FOMC meeting remains highly likely. However, the market’s short-term reaction may vary depending on the dot plot and the tone of the announcement, so investors should stay alert to Fed-related events.
NVIDIA’s Strategy, Competitive Landscape, and the AI Ecosystem
NVIDIA faced concerns due to its association with companies with weaker financial soundness, but CEO Jensen Huang emphasized the legitimacy of its partnerships and strategies, maintaining market confidence. NVIDIA is pushing to expand its GPU-centric AI ecosystem through investments in design/tool providers like Synopsys. Huang continues to highlight the versatility, flexibility, and scalability of GPUs as key strengths. Competitors such as Google’s TPU also exist, but major institutions like Morgan Stanley have raised target prices for NVIDIA and Broadcom, maintaining a positive view on AI and data center-related industries.
Movements in Cloud and Big Tech
Amazon and Google are expanding multicloud collaboration to enhance cloud reliability. This is interpreted as a move to ensure continuity in AI service delivery, and cloud revenue growth is likely to tie directly to expanded AI investment. The competition between TPU and GPU in terms of performance and cost efficiency is a key variable within the LLM (large language model) ecosystem. The cost efficiency and scalability of TPUs will depend on cloud supply capacity and foundry production capacity (e.g., TSMC).
Key Sector and Stock Observations
Tesla showed price resilience despite some skeptical views (e.g., Michael Burry’s overvaluation comments). TD Cowen and Morgan Stanley positively evaluated future momentum such as robotaxi and humanoid chips. Eli Lilly showed limited market impact despite adjustments in new drug pricing, and Disney’s recent movie performance (e.g., Zootopia 2) did well in the Chinese market, raising expectations for a recovery in the entertainment sector.
AI and semiconductor-related stocks (NVIDIA, AMD, Micron, Broadcom, etc.) are reacting sensitively to earnings, guidance, and order flows, while the expansion of cloud/data center investment continues to support medium- to long-term demand. In contrast, utilities, healthcare, and traditional industrial sectors may remain relatively weak due to economic slowdown concerns.
Investment Implications and Risk Management
1) Volatility Management: Sharp declines in crypto markets and interest rate/yencarry issues increase short-term volatility. Reduce leverage positions and maintain clear stop-loss rules.
2) Event Monitoring: Adjust short-term positions based on Fed decisions, ISM/employment indicators, and corporate earnings (especially AI/data center-related firms).
3) Sector Diversification: Maintain exposure to growth sectors such as AI, cloud, and semiconductors, but adjust weights in high-risk crypto and leveraged products.
4) Maintain Long-Term Perspective: Short-term corrections are unlikely to significantly affect the long-term transition toward AI and cloud. Continue long-term research on core growth themes.
Conclusion
The recent market can be summarized as a “breather” phase with short-term corrections and sector divergence occurring simultaneously. Sharp declines in crypto, rising Treasury yields, and yen carry unwinding concerns present short-term risks, but structural demand centered on AI, cloud, and data centers remains intact. Investors should avoid overreacting to short-term events, follow risk management principles, and position based on sector fundamentals and valuations.
